12/28/11

Today's trading session finished with light holiday trading volume while the major indexes were little changed.  However, SPX ended the day as a doji and the potential turn date 12/28 is approaching as a confluence of trendline intersections is clustered over the next few days.  Today is also the last day of CTP cycle high window of 12/24 +/- 1 day.  He's expecting a cycle low going into 1/2/12 +/- 1 day.

So far, evidence points to overbought conditons by all slow stochastics and SPX is apparently running into multi-year trendline resistance at 1268.  These green trendlines have been respected by SPX at various times since late 2008 and may provide valuable clue to the future direction.  The market looks like it may pull back over the next few days.  Price and volume action will be crucial over the next few days to determine direction of the market.

12/22/11 Interesting days ahead

Ok so market continued to rally today leaving my nested triangle count in the dust, so I need to scratch that count out.  No matter, the big picture is still kind of on tract.  We have a nascent rally that continues to reach 12/24 +/- 1 cycle high which coincides with the new moon. 

One thing to be aware is that the last full moon (12/10) and new moon (11/25) the polarity was flipped and market went the opposite direction.  Will the market polarity continue in reverse this time?  The cycle turn window is starting tomorrow so it will be very interesting to see the price and volume actions of leading stocks, precious metals, and the Euro the next couple days.

One possibility is that, judging the buoyancy of this market and its unwillingness to crash, we may just get a pullback into the 1235 (61.8% retracement of this latest rally) area and resume the rally into the next cycle turn window.  This is because I do not see a strong confluence of trendlines intersection into the cycle turn window leading me to believe this is not a major top.  Also, the upper blue channel line resistance has been tested 3 times by the market and each time it was tested the resistance got weakened.

Therefore, my outlook for the time being has shifted toward slightly more bullish.

12/21/11 - Some speculation in terms of EW Counts

12/14/11

Frank's Drawing Board - To exchange ideas with fellow traders